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>>17239
>So in order to believe evolution you have to engage in some serious mental gymnastics.
I think I understand why you don't understand. It's the maths, that's not a slight, it's very difficult for humans to put large numbers into context.
Numbers like 1; 2; 5; 10; 50 are all quantities we encounter relatively frequently and can picture in our minds. You've see 2 dogs together, 5 bannanas in a bunch, 50 fish in a pound (you might struggle with the last, general rule is above 20 you have to tap into specific knowledge to conceptualise).
How many people is 10,000? How did you conceptualise it? A sports stadium full of people? That's all well and good. Here's two...
Then we get to the big numbers 1 million? There's 7.8 billion people on the planet at the moment, try and picture that as a quantity. At this point we're dealing with the notion of big numbers because we can't rationalise the quantities. Then we get to the stars and all minds are blown.
There's also something else I believe you're misunderstanding, evolution is neither a constant process or one of sudden change but rather a mixture of the two, it's closer to radioactive decay, random, and while you may be able to predict the overall decay with a half-life it's impossible to tell when any particular atom will decay. Or in this case when (and by how much) any particular trait will evolve.
So if somebody tells you the chance of two related beneficial mutations happening are 1/10,000,000 it's very easy for our brains to shrug it off, but that's roughly the same odds as a plane crashing*. You've got a 1/50,000,000 dying from a snake bite in North America yet there's a handful of cases every year.
*using the plane crash analogy you could use the size of the plane crash to conceptualise small changes (microlites**) with large changes (super max). And of course, there's many more accidents that go under the radar, so to speak.